Included some metrics on employment data this month and iterated the workpaper to have a dashboard summary of indicators. Still to be iterated – needs refinement.
Inflation
- No new quarterly data for metrics tracking, but new monthly data for January 2026.
- All groups CPI index is 101.33 for Jan26 up from 100.97 for Dec24.
0.36% increase for the month, still above the average monthly increase for Jan25 – Nov 25. 4.13% increase in this particular index from Dec25 to Jan26. Hawkish. - Noted Michele Bullock mentioning in news articles that she doesn’t think inflation is taking off again. Maybe not as strong a consideration but may still be a concern in the next meeting seeing month on month all groups CPI movement is a bit above the average for the past year.
Employment
- First month’s look into this, have included the following: unemployment rate (monthly), participation rate (monthly), underemployment rate (monthly), and the underutilisation rate (monthly).
- Unmployment rate has decreased from Dec25 to Jan 26 (-0.06% to 4.15%), as has the participation rate (-0.04% to 66.66%). Unemployment is very close to the ambient 4% structural unemployment. Potential concern for inflation if labour market is close to full capacity. Michele Bullock mentioned labour market is tight recently – definitely on the radar. Hawkish.
- In contrast, undermployment has increased month on month to Jan26 (+0.19% to 5.90%) along with underutilisation (+0.16% to 9.97%). Dovish.
Inflation having a strong showing as of recent – overall hawkish. Mixed employment indication, but leaning towards hawkish with low unemployment. Hold / raise in February 2026.
